Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -250 TAR +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +11 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -5.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -4.1 (+6.9) | 131.8 (-18.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -4.3 (+6.7) | 129.4 (-16.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -4.3 (+6.7) | 133.3 (-20.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -3.6 (+7.4) | 131.9 (-18.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#339) | -17.5 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#325) | -2.57 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.39 (#325) | -4.46 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#311) | 0.461 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 25.6 |
| OREB / G | 17.8 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 33.0% |
| ORB% | 42.5% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 55.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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