Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -195 PEPP +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +12 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -7.4 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -5.3 (-17.3) | 138.2 (+13.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -4.3 (-16.3) | 136.8 (+15.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -6.0 (-18.0) | 136.3 (+15.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -5.7 (-17.7) | 138.7 (+13.3) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#143) | -6.2 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#119) | -1.37 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#120) | -2.17 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#106) | 0.459 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.0% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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