Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -425 INST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -8.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.9 (-0.9) | 147.6 (+19.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.4 (+0.6) | 154.8 (+12.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.8 (-1.8) | 151.6 (+15.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -5.8 (-0.8) | 149.1 (+17.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#98) | -4.1 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#65) | -1.29 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#68) | -2.37 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#18) | 0.357 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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