Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | NU -190 UNLV +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | NU -4.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -2.6 (+2.4) | 132.9 (-5.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -2.2 (+2.8) | 131.0 (-4.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -1.9 (+3.1) | 132.9 (-5.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -2.1 (+2.9) | 134.1 (-7.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#79) | 2.5 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#155) | 0.94 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#131) | 1.44 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.545 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 35.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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