Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -800 CSUB +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -5.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -2.3 (+17.7) | 144.7 (+1.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -7.0 (+13.0) | 140.9 (+5.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -5.7 (+14.3) | 145.1 (+0.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -3.1 (+16.9) | 149.9 (-3.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 4, 2025 | CAL 87 – 60 CSUB |
| Nov 5, 2024 | CAL 86 – 73 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#335) | -5.9 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#347) | 0.22 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.87 (#353) | 0.04 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#225) | 0.750 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 57.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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