Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | MSU +160 DUKE -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -6.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -2.8 (-6.2) | 142.0 (-3.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -3.7 (-5.3) | 138.1 (+0.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.8 (-5.2) | 134.9 (+4.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -2.5 (-6.5) | 138.9 (+0.1) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | DUKE 66 – 60 MSU |
| Mar 20, 2022 | DUKE 85 – 76 MSU |
| Dec 2, 2020 | MSU 75 – 69 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#199) | 5.0 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#287) | -1.22 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#276) | -1.55 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#202) | 0.419 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 53.2% |
| 3PT% | 6.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 59.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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