Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
| Money | TOW +1450 HOU -4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +16 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -14.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -9.1 (-6.9) | 122.8 (-8.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -12.5 (-3.5) | 118.6 (-4.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -11.2 (-4.8) | 121.7 (-7.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -11.0 (-5.0) | 123.9 (-9.9) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | HOU 65 – 48 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 32-5 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 57.6 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#102) | 18.4 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#85) | 1.37 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#91) | 2.21 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#210) | 0.667 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 17.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 44.7% | 44.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 39.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 32.8% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 11.1% |
Game Analysis
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