Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | KU -7500 FUR +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +35 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | KU -12.2 (+22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -11.1 (+23.9) | 137.8 (-0.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -11.9 (+23.1) | 139.0 (-2.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -11.3 (+23.7) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -9.9 (+25.1) | 136.2 (+0.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#26) | 7.1 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.86 (#8) | 3.01 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.98 (#7) | 3.92 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.693 (#12) | 0.600 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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