Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1600 SDSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -12.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.2 (-10.2) | 126.2 (+16.8) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -8.2 (-11.2) | 125.8 (+17.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -9.3 (-12.3) | 129.3 (+13.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -8.3 (-11.3) | 129.2 (+13.8) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-0 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#7) | 7.4 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#70) | 1.33 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#64) | 2.28 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#73) | 0.658 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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