Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | UTAH +360 HOU -480 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTAH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -7.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -5.8 (-4.2) | 133.5 (+8.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -6.8 (-3.2) | 131.1 (+10.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -4.8 (-5.2) | 131.7 (+10.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -4.4 (-5.6) | 131.5 (+10.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | HOU 66 – 52 UTAH |
| Jan 22, 2025 | HOU 70 – 36 UTAH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTAH | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 32-5 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 57.6 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#19) | 19.6 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#115) | 2.55 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#114) | 4.38 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#207) | 0.694 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTAH | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 40.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 29.2% |
| DRB% | 84.4% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.2% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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