Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -300 ORE +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -6.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.3 (-3.3) | 158.8 (+5.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.4 (-4.4) | 162.0 (+2.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -1.0 (-3.0) | 157.5 (+6.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.2 (-4.2) | 155.6 (+8.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | ALA 99 – 91 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#14) | 11.7 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#16) | 3.88 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.79 (#16) | 5.70 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.755 (#2) | 0.700 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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