Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU +240 DAV -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -1.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -0.7 (+2.7) | 136.2 (+1.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -2.9 (+4.9) | 137.4 (+0.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -0.2 (+2.2) | 134.5 (+3.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -1.1 (+3.1) | 136.9 (+1.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | DAV 76 – 70 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#300) | 0.6 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#309) | 0.18 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#310) | 0.26 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.193 (#353) | 0.646 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 42.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 12.8% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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