Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ND +245 CREI -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -1.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -0.8 (-4.8) | 142.4 (+13.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -0.2 (-3.8) | 145.2 (+10.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -0.0 (-4.0) | 143.6 (+12.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -1.2 (-5.2) | 142.7 (+13.3) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#81) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#163) | -0.31 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#123) | 0.06 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#152) | 0.432 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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