Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -450 FAIR +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +18 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -12.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-40.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -7.8 (+10.2) | 145.3 (-33.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -8.2 (+9.8) | 140.2 (-28.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -7.4 (+10.6) | 144.1 (-32.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -8.8 (+9.2) | 144.8 (-32.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2024 | DREX 67 – 61 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#136) | -1.2 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#149) | -0.56 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#153) | -0.75 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#84) | 0.542 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 57.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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