Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SHSU -275 COLG +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -6.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -3.5 (+0.5) | 136.5 (+23.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -3.6 (+0.4) | 136.9 (+23.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -3.4 (+0.6) | 137.4 (+22.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -3.1 (+0.9) | 139.0 (+21.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#157) | -6.2 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#254) | -0.89 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#282) | -1.26 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#228) | 0.459 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 60.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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