Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ELON -220 NAVY +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | ELON -20.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -12.6 (-6.6) | 147.7 (-15.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -11.6 (-5.6) | 146.0 (-14.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -12.9 (-6.9) | 145.8 (-13.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -13.6 (-7.6) | 149.0 (-17.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#66) | -12.0 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#140) | -1.70 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#120) | -2.67 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#177) | 0.358 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.