Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | INST -175 IONA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | INST -7.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.8 (-1.8) | 143.3 (+19.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -6.7 (-3.7) | 145.8 (+17.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -5.0 (-2.0) | 144.6 (+18.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.1 (-2.1) | 144.4 (+18.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#233) | -10.8 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#290) | -1.81 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#293) | -2.82 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#329) | 0.414 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 41.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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