Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -175 APP +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -3.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.7 (+12.3) | 134.2 (+2.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -1.9 (+13.1) | 135.8 (+1.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.2 (+12.8) | 133.4 (+3.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.5 (+12.5) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2023 | APP 86 – 56 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#237) | -2.2 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#233) | 0.44 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#277) | 0.07 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#208) | 0.526 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 39.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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