Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +150 WEB -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +15 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -1.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -0.8 (-15.8) | 142.2 (-21.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -0.7 (-15.7) | 140.0 (-19.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -0.3 (-15.3) | 141.9 (-20.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -0.8 (-15.8) | 143.0 (-22.0) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#243) | -5.4 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#229) | -0.98 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#226) | -1.43 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#206) | 0.493 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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