Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -200 NIA +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +12 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -7.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-38.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -6.5 (+5.5) | 141.6 (-35.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -4.8 (+7.2) | 139.1 (-33.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -6.2 (+5.8) | 140.8 (-34.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -6.4 (+5.6) | 141.9 (-35.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#252) | -6.5 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#235) | -2.39 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#233) | -4.10 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#224) | 0.352 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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