Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | TAR +420 HOF -580 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -17.4 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -11.4 (+13.4) | 129.8 (-9.8) | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -11.7 (+13.7) | 128.6 (-8.6) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -13.1 (+15.1) | 130.2 (-10.2) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -12.7 (+14.7) | 128.7 (-8.7) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -18.3 (#360) | -0.9 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.45 (#354) | 1.72 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.58 (#361) | 2.40 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#301) | 0.585 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.38 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 32.4% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 57.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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