Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -150 LIP +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +11 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -20.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -15.7 (+4.7) | 153.8 (+7.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -17.9 (+6.9) | 153.5 (+7.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -16.7 (+5.7) | 152.8 (+8.2) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2025 | UNCA 69 – 64 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#349) | 7.3 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#329) | 1.58 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.85 (#335) | 2.86 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.342 (#335) | 0.510 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 26.5 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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