Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | TOW +400 UCI -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +7 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -14.6 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -10.0 (+3.0) | 130.3 (-3.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -9.0 (+2.0) | 130.5 (-3.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -10.7 (+3.7) | 128.9 (-1.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -10.5 (+3.5) | 127.6 (-0.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 14-3 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#193) | 12.8 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#171) | 3.74 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#170) | 5.28 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#138) | 0.669 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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