Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NIA -165 LIU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +8 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -1.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.0 (+8.0) | 140.8 (-28.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -0.8 (+7.2) | 137.7 (-25.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -0.2 (+7.8) | 140.2 (-28.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.0 (+8.0) | 140.8 (-28.8) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-4 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#297) | -7.8 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#316) | -1.05 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.07 (#325) | -1.65 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#347) | 0.461 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 42.0% |
Game Analysis
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