Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY +130 ME -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | ME -10.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -7.3 (+2.3) | 141.1 (-4.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -7.2 (+2.2) | 141.2 (-4.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -6.8 (+1.8) | 142.8 (-5.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -7.4 (+2.4) | 141.7 (-4.7) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-12 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#325) | 1.0 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#311) | -0.13 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#295) | -0.50 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#346) | 0.474 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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