Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HOF +220 ARST -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -7.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -4.2 (+6.2) | 137.0 (-3.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -5.0 (+7.0) | 140.3 (-6.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -4.6 (+6.6) | 139.8 (-5.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -4.1 (+6.1) | 138.1 (-4.1) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#217) | 4.4 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#142) | 1.78 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#135) | 2.48 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#120) | 0.652 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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