Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | COPP +210 WAG -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +3 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -4.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -3.4 (+0.4) | 123.1 (-2.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -5.5 (+2.5) | 124.7 (-3.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.4 (-0.6) | 123.7 (-2.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -3.3 (+0.3) | 123.3 (-2.3) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | WAG 65 – 52 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-27 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 1-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 2-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-17 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.9 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 64.1 |
| Massey | -16.5 (#360) | -6.7 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.27 (#352) | -0.37 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.33 (#348) | -0.84 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.308 (#360) | 0.474 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 34.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 27.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 57.7% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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