Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VILL +155 CIN -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -6.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -2.2 (+10.2) | 138.0 (-10.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -2.4 (+10.4) | 136.3 (-8.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -2.3 (+10.3) | 137.4 (-9.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -3.2 (+11.2) | 138.9 (-10.9) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#77) | 17.9 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#202) | 2.17 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#178) | 2.98 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#179) | 0.552 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 38.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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