Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -1600 BRWN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +20 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -15.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -13.5 (+6.5) | 141.9 (-13.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -14.2 (+5.8) | 139.6 (-11.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -15.0 (+5.0) | 140.3 (-12.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -14.5 (+5.5) | 141.5 (-13.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | PROV 86 – 79 BRWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 14-5 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#65) | -2.9 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#48) | -1.87 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#38) | -1.74 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#40) | 0.410 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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