Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | USF -2000 UAPB +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +18 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | USF -19.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -15.0 (+3.0) | 158.2 (+31.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -16.5 (+1.5) | 162.8 (+27.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -17.2 (+0.8) | 155.9 (+34.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -15.2 (+2.8) | 152.7 (+37.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2024 | USF 85 – 69 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 83.7 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#149) | -13.0 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#272) | -1.90 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#261) | -3.50 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#263) | 0.480 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 62.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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