Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | BRY +125 TOW -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +8 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -1.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (+71.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.8 (+8.8) | 130.4 (+63.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.4 (+9.4) | 129.9 (+64.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -2.5 (+10.5) | 132.9 (+61.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.1 (+9.1) | 131.8 (+62.2) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2024 | TOW 70 – 65 BRY |
| Dec 22, 2022 | BRY 69 – 59 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#225) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#215) | -0.64 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#185) | -0.67 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#199) | 0.480 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 18.1% | 42.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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