Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | LMU -163 UCSB +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -2.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -2.0 (-11.0) | 143.1 (-16.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -2.1 (-11.1) | 143.4 (-16.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -2.5 (-11.5) | 144.0 (-17.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -2.3 (-11.3) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | LMU 78 – 74 UCSB |
| Dec 19, 2024 | LMU 60 – 58 UCSB |
| Dec 12, 2020 | LMU 81 – 76 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2020 | UCSB 69 – 58 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#142) | -1.0 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#204) | 0.31 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#194) | 0.13 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#214) | 0.514 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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