Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -900 LIP +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -3.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.7 (+1.3) | 148.2 (-13.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.0 (+0.0) | 151.4 (-16.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -1.3 (+1.7) | 152.3 (-17.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.4 (+1.6) | 149.1 (-14.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2024 | ARK 76 – 60 LIP |
| Dec 5, 2020 | ARK 86 – 50 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#95) | 1.6 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#127) | 0.54 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#109) | 0.54 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#126) | 0.521 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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