Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -188 UVA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +23 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -3.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -5.0 (+18.0) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -4.7 (+18.3) | 134.3 (-3.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -4.5 (+18.5) | 132.8 (-1.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -6.1 (+16.9) | 133.2 (-2.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | MEM 64 – 62 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#46) | 10.7 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#12) | 2.56 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#16) | 3.38 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.689 (#3) | 0.610 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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