Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -700 CAL +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +5 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -14.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -12.7 (-7.7) | 152.4 (+38.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -9.4 (-4.4) | 151.0 (+40.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -12.7 (-7.7) | 151.1 (+39.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -11.5 (-6.5) | 151.9 (+39.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 18-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#25) | 4.8 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#76) | 2.44 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#83) | 3.48 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.598 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 37.8% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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