Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -175 UNCG +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -5.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.7 (+5.3) | 148.1 (-11.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -3.4 (+7.6) | 146.7 (-9.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -6.5 (+4.5) | 149.2 (-12.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -5.6 (+5.4) | 149.7 (-12.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | UNCG 72 – 68 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#121) | 1.9 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#144) | 1.23 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#132) | 1.63 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#161) | 0.550 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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