Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -175 KC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -6.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -5.5 (+7.5) | 138.6 (-11.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.5 (+7.5) | 137.5 (-10.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -5.9 (+7.1) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.9 (+7.1) | 137.8 (-10.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | KC 73 – 66 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#230) | -5.4 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#139) | -1.60 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#152) | -1.96 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#149) | 0.463 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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