Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -138 EKU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -9.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -8.1 (-1.1) | 147.0 (+22.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -7.9 (-0.9) | 152.0 (+17.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -8.0 (-1.0) | 152.1 (+16.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -8.3 (-1.3) | 148.4 (+20.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | TROY 84 – 74 EKU |
| Nov 28, 2023 | EKU 77 – 76 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#219) | -7.9 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#321) | -2.60 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#283) | -3.75 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#310) | 0.348 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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