Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | LMU +185 CSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -9.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.9 (-4.1) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -5.1 (-3.9) | 141.8 (+1.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -4.1 (-4.9) | 144.6 (-1.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -4.8 (-4.2) | 145.1 (-2.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | CSU 83 – 54 LMU |
| Dec 1, 2022 | CSU 87 – 71 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#147) | 14.8 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#214) | 2.54 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#207) | 3.63 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#239) | 0.652 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 52.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 2.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 59.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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