Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -20000 UTSA +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -24.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -19.1 (-11.1) | 148.1 (+7.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -22.7 (-14.7) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -22.7 (-14.7) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -21.5 (-13.5) | 147.8 (+8.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-1 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#46) | -7.8 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#20) | -0.80 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#25) | -1.70 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.693 (#13) | 0.431 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 43.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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