Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -800 UVU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -10.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -8.8 (+5.2) | 146.6 (-6.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -9.7 (+4.3) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -10.6 (+3.4) | 146.3 (-6.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -9.0 (+5.0) | 147.4 (-7.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-1 |
| Home | 17-3 | 12-0 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#91) | 0.3 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#94) | -0.12 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#114) | -1.21 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#126) | 0.476 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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