Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -26.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | FLA -7000 GRAM +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +39 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -26.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -21.6 (+17.4) | 148.0 (+5.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -21.9 (+17.1) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -24.9 (+14.1) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -25.5 (+13.5) | 146.8 (+6.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2024 | FLA 86 – 62 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#44) | -11.4 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#61) | -3.44 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#55) | -4.43 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#46) | 0.389 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 25.9 |
| OREB / G | 17.1 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 42.3% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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