Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -800 LT +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +10 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -14.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -12.6 (-2.6) | 150.3 (+1.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -10.2 (-0.2) | 150.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -11.5 (-1.5) | 152.1 (-0.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -13.1 (-3.1) | 151.8 (+0.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 11-2 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#27) | 4.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#9) | 0.84 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.67 (#9) | 1.41 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.743 (#2) | 0.487 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 46.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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