Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -225 UIW +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -0.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -1.2 (+1.8) | 151.9 (-0.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -1.4 (+1.6) | 150.9 (+0.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -0.7 (+2.3) | 149.1 (+1.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -1.2 (+1.8) | 151.1 (-0.1) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | RGV 106 – 93 UIW |
| Jan 6, 2026 | RGV 80 – 67 UIW |
| Feb 18, 2025 | UIW 66 – 60 RGV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | RGV 85 – 78 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-8 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L14 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#335) | -6.9 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#337) | -1.06 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.83 (#348) | -1.90 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#296) | 0.437 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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