Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | WCU -225 BELL +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +12 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | WCU -4.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -3.4 (+8.6) | 145.3 (+14.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -5.8 (+6.2) | 144.4 (+15.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -2.1 (+9.9) | 143.8 (+16.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -3.1 (+8.9) | 146.2 (+13.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 1-14 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#333) | -9.6 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#328) | -2.76 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#344) | -3.46 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#253) | 0.332 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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