Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UNA -400 TNTC +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +23 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -8.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -4.8 (+18.2) | 146.6 (-5.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -6.0 (+17.0) | 151.0 (-10.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -5.4 (+17.6) | 151.2 (-10.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -5.3 (+17.7) | 148.3 (-7.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | TNTC 70 – 67 UNA |
| Dec 1, 2023 | UNA 86 – 71 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#188) | -4.5 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#288) | 0.16 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#265) | -0.25 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#300) | 0.502 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 58.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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