Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | USM -210 ALST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -0.6 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.1 (+15.9) | 150.7 (-5.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -0.8 (+16.2) | 152.6 (-7.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -0.8 (+16.2) | 152.1 (-7.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.1 (+15.9) | 151.6 (-6.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#311) | -2.9 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#286) | -0.92 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#291) | -1.57 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#329) | 0.480 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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