Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -5000 UMES +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -23.3 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -17.6 (-13.6) | 141.7 (+14.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -18.7 (-14.7) | 142.9 (+13.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -15.9 (-11.9) | 142.8 (+13.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -17.5 (-13.5) | 141.4 (+14.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | UMES 83 – 82 LONG |
| Nov 16, 2023 | LONG 80 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 2-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#194) | -20.0 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#150) | -3.17 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#150) | -3.89 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#203) | 0.397 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 38.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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