Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -175 TCU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -4.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -4.0 (-0.0) | 147.4 (+10.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -3.3 (+0.7) | 146.4 (+11.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -3.5 (+0.5) | 145.3 (+12.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -3.7 (+0.3) | 144.8 (+13.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TCU 73 – 63 CIN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CIN 75 – 63 TCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TCU 75 – 57 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#21) | 13.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#54) | 2.52 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#30) | 2.84 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#60) | 0.577 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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