Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +33 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -28.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -23.7 (+9.3) | 147.5 (-8.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -24.6 (+8.4) | 147.0 (-8.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -26.3 (+6.7) | 148.8 (-9.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -26.2 (+6.8) | 148.3 (-9.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#30) | -10.1 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#24) | -1.50 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.18 (#11) | -3.14 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#36) | 0.440 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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